The Literary Lottery

The first professional fiction sale I made was a short story set in somebody else’s universe.  It may also very well be the last time I write that kind of story. 

Let me explain.  This has nothing to do with how I feel about the story (I still love it) or the universe (the same).   The story, “Protecting Data’s Friends,” was purchased by Dean Wesley Smith for the Star Trek: Strange New Worlds anthology. For ten years, Pocket Books put out an annual collection of the best Star Trek stories from non-professional writers — meaning, writers who hadn’t sold a novel or more than three stories.  We were paid ten cents a word, and I still have a copy of that check framed on my wall as the first money I was ever paid for my fiction.  It was a great day when I learned I’d sold it.

So I have nothing but good feelings for that story.  There are writers out there who think it’s somehow shameful to write “media-tie-in” fiction, that it’s akin to slumming, but I don’t feel that way at all.  I also don’t begrudge any writer for writing stories or novels set in other people’s universes; if they’re having fun, and making money, it’s all good.  Growing up, some of the first books I cut my teeth on were media-related, which proves it really can be gateway fiction.

But here’s the deal.  If you play in somebody else’s sandbox, you don’t get to play the literary lottery. 

What’s the literary lottery?  If you write a book geared for a mass audience that’s completely your own work, every time it lands on an editor’s desk, you’re playing the literary lottery.  It may be a book that’s lucky to sell a few thousand copies or it may be the next Harry Potter.  It may garner you a modest advance or a mega deal of over six figures.  Or maybe it doesn’t sell at all.  You just don’t know.  That’s what makes it the literary lottery.  

Now, it’s true that very, very few books have the potential to be bestsellers.  In fact, at least two-thirds of the time, I’d be willing to bet good money after glancing at a book whether it does or doesn’t have that potential.  That’s not to say it’s a bad book.  It’s just that some books are slotted at a certain level.  But if you write a book set in somebody else’s universe — what’s usually called “work-for-hire” — in almost all cases you don’t own the copyright to that work.  If it becomes a mega seller, you may benefit beyond your initial advance, or you may not (it depends on your contract), but you have no control over that product.  With books that are a hundred percent your own, however, you have full control unless you sign any part of it away. 

So if you’re like me, with a day job, two kids, and a crazy busy life, you have to make certain choices with your writing time.  Right now, at my maximum, I think I can write three books a year, as well as a handful of short stories thrown in for good measure — that’s if I stick to my four or five pages a day quota.  Should I spend that time writing books geared for the widest audience possible, or should I write a book set in somebody else’s universe? 

Different writers will answer this question differently.  It can be tremendously fun playing in somebody else’s sandbox.  Like I said, I loved writing that Star Trek story.  But the next year, since the other stories I’d sold hadn’t been published yet, and I was still eligible for Star Trek Strange New Worlds, I wrote another one.  And guess what?  The editor didn’t buy it.  It’s okay, it happens, but now what?  Here’s the problem:  There were no other markets for that story. 

When I look at the three dozen short stories I’ve sold so far, less than a third sold the first time out of the chute.  I had one story I sold after a dozen rejections for over a thousand dollars.  Once your writing gets to a certain level, it’s mostly about taste and timing.  Sometimes a story (or a novel) needs to land on a lot of editors’ desks before it gets bought. 

For me, though, the most important reason for writing only my own fiction has nothing to do with the fiction itself.  It has to do with my finances.  You see, my day job completely covers my expenses.  This is important:  I don’t need the writing money to survive. 

This gives me a freedom that full-time professional fiction writers may not have.  When the mortgage payment is looming, or the creditors are filling up your answering machine demanding payment, you don’t have the same freedom.  Someday I may have that problem, but right now I can focus only on the books that have the highest probability of reaping me the biggest rewards.  Writers like to dream about going sans day job, but a day job does have certain advantages.

It allows me to play the literary lottery each time out of the chute.

So when someone asks me if I’ll ever write more Star Trek stories, and I say probably not, this is the reason why.  It’s not snobbery.  It has nothing to do with Star Trek itself — I love the universe, both the show and the books — and everything to do with having the freedom (a day job that pays the expenses) to do what’s best for my writing career long term. 

Of course, this doesn’t mean it will always work.  It just means I’m reaching for it.

10,000 Hours X 500 Words an Hour = ?

Most writers don’t like math, but I’m in the mood to talk about the above formula this morning.  First, let’s start with two numbers for the aspiring professional fiction writer: 

  • 10,000
  • 1,000,000

I was thinking about these two numbers this morning on my way to the day job.  I was thinking about how hard I’ve worked over the years to get myself into this position — where I’ve sold a book and three dozen short stories, and have two more books that I feel good about now out in editors’ hands.  There are no shortcuts, you know.  I sometimes get the feeling when I talk to aspiring writers that they’re looking for shortcuts — tips and tricks to spare them the long agonizing years of work to pound their craft into shape.  But no, the road is hard.  How fast you go down the road depends solely on how hard you’re willing to work.

But what does that mean?  That’s where those two numbers come in.  The first, 10,000, is the number of hours of concerted practice various assessments have determined it takes to reach a level of mastery in any field.  Let’s break that down.  If you practiced an hour a day, every day for a year, you’d end up with 365 hours.  If you did that for ten years you’d have 3650 hours.  How long would it take to reach 10,000 hours at one hour a day of practice?  The answer is 27.4. 

However, when they’ve studied professional musicians, they find that those who achieve mastery (even the really young ones) practice more than an hour a day.  In fact, it’s closer to three to four hours a day.  At three hours a day of practice, that would be 1095 hours.  Let’s say you miss a few days here and there due to illness and other matters and round it off at 1000 hours.  So according to this formula, if you practiced three hours a day, you’d achieve mastery in about 10 years.  Which, interestingly enough, is about the length of time they’ve found for very serious musicians.  If they start seriously practicing at age 10, they achieve mastery at age 20 and everyone hails them as geniuses when in fact they just put in the hours. 

This is why I tell people I wish I worked harder earlier on.  The people who achieved early success in writing did so because they worked harder, not because they were more gifted.  I didn’t realize how hard I needed to work until I reached my mid twenties. 

The other number, 1,000,0000, is the number of new words of fiction many professional writers say you have to write before you get anywhere close to a publishable level.  Let’s break this number down, too.  Most writers shortly get up to a speed of two to three manuscript pages an hour, which is 500-750 words.  Some more, some less, but the bulk of professional writers fall in that range.  Let’s be conservative and say it’s 500 words.  How many hours would you need to write to reach 1,000,000 at that pace?  About 2000.  

Ah, you think, so it’s easier to reach mastery as a writer than as a musician.  Oh, no.  Remember, I said publishable.  That’s akin to being able to get paid to play the piano at your local bar; it means you’re good enough that someone’s willing to fork out some cash for your work.  It doesn’t mean you’ve reached mastery.  What’s mastery?  Well, that depends on your goals, of course, but the bare minimum, I think, would be making a good living from your craft. 

Let’s turn it around another way.  How many words would we write at 500 words an hour for 10,000 hours?  Well, that’s 5,000,000 words. 

And I think that’s a pretty good benchmark.  Ten years of practice at three hours a day, every day, will get you there.  If you put in an hour a day, take thirty years. 

Seem daunting?  Good.  It’s not a road for the faint of heart, so turn back now if you don’t want to put in the work.  Me, I’m hoping my hard work graduates me from playing at the local bar to making a good living at my craft.  How long will it take me to get there?  Well, let me see, let’s crunch some numbers . . . 

Nah, I’m better off spending that time practicing.